:Product: 1220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Dec 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
19/2319Z from Region 1934 (S15E65). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (21 Dec, 22 Dec, 23 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
391 km/s at 20/0820Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/0146Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/2201Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Dec, 22 Dec, 23
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Dec 149
Predicted   21 Dec-23 Dec 150/145/140
90 Day Mean        20 Dec 140

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05