:Product: 1221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2013 Dec 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
21/1036Z from Region 1928 (S17W47). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23 Dec, 24 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 390 km/s at
21/0010Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/1333Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/2122Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23 Dec, 24
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Dec 144
Predicted   22 Dec-24 Dec 140/135/135
90 Day Mean        21 Dec 141

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05