:Product: 1009RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Oct 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
09/0158Z from Region 2182 (S14W58). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct,
 12 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
397 km/s at 09/0122Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 09/1333Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 09/0115Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 118 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Oct, 11 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (12 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M    40/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Oct 119
Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct 120/120/115
90 Day Mean        09 Oct 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  007/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/20