:Product: 0131RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
31/1542Z from Region 1968 (N10E29). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 376 km/s at
31/0319Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 31/0404Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 31/0929Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (01 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (02 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (03 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jan 166
Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb 170/175/175
90 Day Mean        31 Jan 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  006/005-013/017-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/30/20
Minor Storm           01/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/45/25