:Product: 0217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
17/0304Z from Region 1977 (S10W16). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
day one (18 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
442 km/s at 17/1655Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/2137Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/1856Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M    60/45/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Feb 152
Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb 145/135/135
90 Day Mean        17 Feb 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  014/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05