:Product: 0227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
27/1230Z from Region 1991 (S25E52). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 01
Mar, 02 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 519 km/s at 27/1936Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 27/1752Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 27/1810Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 58
pfu at 27/1845Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 245 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 Feb), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (01 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (02
Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (28 Feb), are
likely to cross threshold on day two (01 Mar) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day three (02 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     99/70/50
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Feb 176
Predicted   28 Feb-02 Mar 175/170/170
90 Day Mean        27 Feb 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb  011/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar  019/025-009/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/05
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    55/25/05