:Product: 0228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Feb 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
28/0048Z from Region 1991 (S25E38). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02
Mar, 03 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 543 km/s at 28/0650Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 27/2242Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 27/2128Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 103
pfu at 28/0845Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 261 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar). Protons are expected to cross
threshold on day one (01 Mar), are likely to cross threshold on day two
(02 Mar) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (03 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     99/70/50
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Feb 171
Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar 170/165/165
90 Day Mean        28 Feb 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  015/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb  014/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  009/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    25/05/05