:Product: 0520RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 19 2225 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/2110Z from Region 2071 (S11E80). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 367 km/s at
19/0710Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/0927Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 19/0946Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (20 May) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (21 May, 22 May).

III.  Event probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 May 117
Predicted   20 May-22 May 115/115/120
90 Day Mean        19 May 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  006/005-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    05/20/20