:Product: 0522RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 May 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 22/0310Z from Region 2072 (S18W19). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 375 km/s at 22/1139Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 22/2053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 22/1537Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (24 May, 25 May). III. Event probabilities 23 May-25 May Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 May 111 Predicted 23 May-25 May 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 22 May 147 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 May 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 008/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May-25 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/05/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 30/15/15 Major-severe storm 20/05/05