:Product: 0525RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 May 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
25/1753Z from Region 2065 (S19W73). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 May,
27 May, 28 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 473 km/s at
25/0530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 204 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (27 May, 28 May).

III.  Event probabilities 26 May-28 May
Class M    20/20/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 May 113
Predicted   26 May-28 May 112/112/110
90 Day Mean        25 May 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May   NA/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/05/05