:Product: 0531RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jun 01 0320 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2014

**********  CORRECTION  **********

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
31/1556Z from Region 2076 (S20W59). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jun,
02 Jun, 03 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 373 km/s at
30/2359Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 30/2125Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 31/0754Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Jun), quiet levels on
day two (02 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Jun-02 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 May 104
Predicted   01Jun-03 Jun 105/110/110
90 Day Mean        30 May 141

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 May  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun  008/008-005/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01