:Product: 0605RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jun 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jun,
07 Jun, 08 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 366 km/s at
05/0636Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/1913Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/1913Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (06 Jun,
07 Jun, 08 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jun 111
Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun 110/110/115
90 Day Mean        05 Jun 138

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  007/008-007/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    15/30/20