:Product: 0606RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jun 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
06/1931Z from Region 2080 (S12E18). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
385 km/s at 06/0132Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/2227Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/2233Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07 Jun, 08 Jun)
and quiet levels on day three (09 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M    30/35/35
Class X    10/15/15
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jun 133
Predicted   07 Jun-09 Jun 130/130/135
90 Day Mean        06 Jun 138

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun  007/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/30/15
Major-severe storm    30/20/05