:Product: 0614RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jun 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/1929Z from the east limb. There was a Type II radio sweep (est 396
km/s) with the flare and a CME was later observed on emerging from the
east limb.  There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (15 Jun, 16 Jun)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (17 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
425 km/s at 14/1344Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/0000Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 14/0016Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 113 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (15 Jun, 16 Jun) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Jun). Protons have a chance
of crossing threshold on day one (15 Jun), have a chance of crossing
threshold on day two (16 Jun) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day three (17 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M    60/55/45
Class X    30/25/20
Proton     30/25/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jun 144
Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun 135/135/135
90 Day Mean        14 Jun 139

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  009/011-009/010-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           20/30/10
Major-severe storm    10/30/05