:Product: 0615RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jun 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/1139Z from Region 2085 (S18W97). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (16 Jun) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (17 Jun)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (18 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 413 km/s at
15/0831Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 15/1649Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/0807Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Jun, 17 Jun)
and mostly quiet levels on day three (18 Jun). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on day one (16 Jun) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day two and three (17-18 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M    55/55/50
Class X    25/20/15
Proton     25/20/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jun 130
Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun 130/130/130
90 Day Mean        15 Jun 139

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  009/010-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/20/15