:Product: 0616RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jun 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/0001Z from Region 2087 (S18W08). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (17 Jun) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance
for an X-class flare on days two and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 396 km/s at
16/1913Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/0526Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/1215Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold throughout the period (17-19 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
Class M    55/50/50
Class X    20/15/10
Proton     20/15/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jun 117
Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun 115/115/110
90 Day Mean        16 Jun 139

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  009/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  008/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    20/15/05