:Product: 0618RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jun 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
18/0331Z from Region 2087 (S20W35). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (19 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on day two (20 Jun) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class
flares on day three (21 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
499 km/s at 17/2303Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 18/1857Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 18/2037Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21
Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (19 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M    50/40/30
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jun 111
Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun 110/105/105
90 Day Mean        18 Jun 138

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05