:Product: 0619RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jun 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
19/1924Z from Region 2093 (S10E21). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.  There was also a 24 degree filament
eruption between 19/1530-1655 UTC centered near S01E12.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (20 Jun, 21 Jun) and
likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (22 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 500 km/s at 19/0636Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 18/2248Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 18/2127Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (20 Jun, 21 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (22 Jun) with the arrival of a
geoeffective high speed solar wind stream.

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M    45/35/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jun 111
Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        19 Jun 137

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  005/005-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/20