:Product: 0620RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jun 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
20/1120Z from Region 2093 (S09E08). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (21 Jun) and likely to be low
with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
512 km/s at 20/2001Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 20/1928Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/1349Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 487 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Jun), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (22 Jun) with the arrival of a coronal mass ejection from 19
June, and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M    45/35/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jun 102
Predicted   21 Jun-23 Jun 105/105/100
90 Day Mean        20 Jun 137

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  006/005-013/018-015/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/40/40
Minor Storm           01/25/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/35/35