:Product: 0621RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jun 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/1119Z from Region 2093 (S09W06). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun,
24 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
502 km/s at 21/2038. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/2145Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/2104Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 198 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (22 Jun, 23
Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Jun) with a chance for
minor storms in response the the passage of transient features.

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jun 101
Predicted   22 Jun-24 Jun 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        21 Jun 136

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  013/018-018/018-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    35/25/35