:Product: 0622RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jun 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Jun,
24 Jun, 25 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 459 km/s at
21/2117Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 153 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun) in response to a
series of transient passages.

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jun 094
Predicted   23 Jun-25 Jun 100/095/100
90 Day Mean        22 Jun 136

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  018/018-010/015-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/45/35
Minor Storm           30/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/35/25