:Product: 0625RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jun 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (26 Jun, 27 Jun)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (28 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 353 km/s at
25/1953Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 25/1548Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/0610Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (27 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M    01/05/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jun 097
Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun 100/105/110
90 Day Mean        25 Jun 134

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  006/005-007/008-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/25
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           10/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/10