:Product: 0626RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Jun 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 26/0918Z from Region 2096 (N09E18). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun, 29 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 390 km/s at 26/0735Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/1157Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/1157Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (27 Jun, 29 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day two (28 Jun). III. Event probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Jun 100 Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 26 Jun 133 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 008/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 007/008-012/012-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/25/15 Minor Storm 01/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 15/20/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/10