:Product: 0703RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jul 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
03/0359Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(04 Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
392 km/s at 03/0450Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 03/0235Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 03/0457Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 Jul, 05 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (06 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jul 178
Predicted   04 Jul-06 Jul 180/185/185
90 Day Mean        03 Jul 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul  006/005-006/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/20