:Product: 0705RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jul 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/0554Z from Region 2108 (S08E16). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(06 Jul, 07 Jul, 08 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 325 km/s at
05/2104Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05/1802Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/1802Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul, 08
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jul 193
Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul 195/190/185
90 Day Mean        05 Jul 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05