:Product: 0707RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Jul 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 07/0802Z from Region 2109 (S10E09). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jul, 09 Jul, 10 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 373 km/s at 07/1659Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 07/1946Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/1740Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Jul), unsettled levels on day two (09 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (10 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Jul, 09 Jul, 10 Jul). III. Event probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul Class M 70/70/70 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Jul 198 Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 200/200/190 90 Day Mean 07 Jul 135 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 009/010-011/012-007/007 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/15 Major-severe storm 25/20/10