:Product: 0709RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Jul 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 09/0026Z from Region 2113 (N09E35). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. No earthward directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 386 km/s at 09/1824Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/1616Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 08/2115Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul). III. Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul Class M 70/70/70 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Jul 198 Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 190/180/170 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 136 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 007/007-007/007-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 10/10/20