:Product: 0712RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Jul 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 12/1408Z from Region 2108 (S07W77). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (13 Jul) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (14 Jul, 15 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 413 km/s at 12/2044Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/1730Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/1104Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Jul), quiet levels on day two (14 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (13 Jul). III. Event probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul Class M 60/50/30 Class X 10/05/05 Proton 10/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Jul 145 Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 135/130/120 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 137 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 008/010-007/008-009/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/25 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 20/25/20 Major-severe storm 20/20/20