:Product: 0713RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jul 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
13/0903Z from Region 2109 (S08W72). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (14 Jul) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and
three (15 Jul, 16 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 379 km/s at
12/2238Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 13/1947Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/0918Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Jul, 16
Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (15 Jul). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (14
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M    60/40/25
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jul 127
Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul 120/115/110
90 Day Mean        13 Jul 137

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  007/ 006 (Estimated)
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  008/008-009/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20