:Product: 0715RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jul 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
15/0305Z from Region 2109 (S08, L=221). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jul,
17 Jul, 18 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 525 km/s at
15/1126Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 14/2100Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -9 nT at 15/0547Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Jul, 17 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (18 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jul 101
Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul 100/100/095
90 Day Mean        15 Jul 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  008/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/15/10