:Product: 0727RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jul 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
27/0551Z from Region 2125 (S13E57). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Jul,
29 Jul, 30 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 400 km/s at
26/2258Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/2054Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/2348Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (29 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (30 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jul 121
Predicted   28 Jul-30 Jul 130/135/135
90 Day Mean        27 Jul 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul  009/012-007/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/15