:Product: 0803RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Aug 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 03/0312Z from Region 2132 (S19E18). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 459 km/s at 02/2329Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/2121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/1945Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Aug, 05 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (06 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug). III. Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug Class M 45/45/45 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Aug 152 Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 150/150/150 90 Day Mean 03 Aug 131 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 012/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 010/010-007/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/15/10 Minor Storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 40/25/10