:Product: 0809RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Aug 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/0901Z from Region 2135 (N12E22). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Aug, 11 Aug, 12 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 396 km/s at
08/2119Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/0032Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/1157Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 343 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Aug 113
Predicted   10 Aug-12 Aug 110/110/105
90 Day Mean        09 Aug 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/10/10