:Product: 0810RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Aug 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of the period was a C1/Sf flare at 10/2134 UTC from Region 2137 (S19W23, Cao/beta). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (11 Aug, 12 Aug) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (13 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 428 km/s at 10/2026Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 10/2001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/0829Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 305 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (11 Aug, 13 Aug) and quiet levels on day two (12 Aug). III. Event probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug Class M 10/10/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Aug 108 Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 10 Aug 129 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 008/008-006/005-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/15 Minor Storm 05/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/15/25 Major-severe storm 25/10/25