:Product: 0811RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Aug 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
10/2134Z from Region 2137 (S19W23). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Aug,
13 Aug, 14 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 463 km/s at
10/2320Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 10/2103Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/1414Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 565 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (12 Aug, 14 Aug) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (13 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Aug 105
Predicted   12 Aug-14 Aug 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        11 Aug 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  006/005-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/10
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/20
Major-severe storm    10/25/10