:Product: 0812RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Aug 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Aug,
14 Aug, 15 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
557 km/s at 12/0415Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 12/1641Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 12/1908Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (14 Aug, 15 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Aug 104
Predicted   13 Aug-15 Aug 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        12 Aug 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug  008/010-009/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    35/25/25