:Product: 0817RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Aug 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
17/1948Z from Region 2146 (N09E62). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
325 km/s at 17/1204Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/0749Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/1148Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 115 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Aug) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Aug 115
Predicted   18 Aug-20 Aug 115/110/110
90 Day Mean        17 Aug 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug  004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  005/005-009/012-013/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                01/35/35
Minor Storm           01/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/30/30