:Product: 0819RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Aug 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Aug,
21 Aug, 22 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
467 km/s at 19/1542Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 19/2035Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 19/1936Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (20 Aug), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (21 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (22
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Aug 111
Predicted   20 Aug-22 Aug 110/110/115
90 Day Mean        19 Aug 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug  019/025-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    30/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    30/15/15