:Product: 0822RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Aug 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/0628Z from Region 2149 (N12E63). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug,
25 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
380 km/s at 22/1505Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 22/0634Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 22/0230Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 288 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug, 25
Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Aug 126
Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug 130/140/145
90 Day Mean        22 Aug 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05