:Product: 0824RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Aug 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
24/1217Z from Region 2151 (S07E58). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Aug, 26 Aug, 27 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 297 km/s at
24/0338Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/0142Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/0513Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 293 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (25 Aug) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Aug 141
Predicted   25 Aug-27 Aug 135/135/135
90 Day Mean        24 Aug 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug  006/005-011/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/35/30
Minor Storm           01/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/15/20