:Product: 0827RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Aug 27 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 26/2325Z from Region 2146 (N07W58). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (28 Aug, 29 Aug) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (30 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 368 km/s at 27/2051Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 27/0848Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 27/0819Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (28 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (29 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (30 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (28 Aug). III. Event probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug Class M 40/30/20 Class X 05/05/01 Proton 10/05/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Aug 123 Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 125/125/120 90 Day Mean 27 Aug 128 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 016/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 018/025-010/010-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/35/15 Minor Storm 30/10/01 Major-severe storm 10/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 30/20/10