:Product: 0831RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Aug 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
31/1211Z from Region 2149 (N09W63). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01
Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
473 km/s at 31/2028Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/1245Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/1021Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1342 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Aug 125
Predicted   01 Sep-03 Sep 130/130/125
90 Day Mean        31 Aug 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug  011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep  009/012-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10