:Product: 0901RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Sep 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 01/0744Z from Region 2149 (N09W77). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (02 Sep, 03 Sep) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (04 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 508 km/s at 01/0750Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 01/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/0329Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3504 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep). III. Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep Class M 20/20/35 Class X 01/01/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Sep 127 Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 125/125/115 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 129 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 013/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 011/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 008/008-008/008-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/25 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/20