:Product: 0902RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Sep 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
02/1315Z from Region 2152 (S16W12). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep,
05 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
521 km/s at 02/0825Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/1646Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/0439Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
02/2040Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6112 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Sep,
04 Sep, 05 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M    25/35/35
Class X    01/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Sep 136
Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep 140/135/130
90 Day Mean        02 Sep 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  008/008-007/010-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/15
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/20/10