:Product: 0906RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Sep 06 2320 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at
06/1709Z from Region 2157 (S14E44). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08
Sep, 09 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
430 km/s at 06/2049Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 06/1531Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 06/0512Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9 pfu at
06/0740Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 286 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Sep), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (08 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (09
Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (07 Sep), are
likely to cross threshold on day two (08 Sep) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day three (09 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     99/70/50
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Sep 157
Predicted   07 Sep-09 Sep 160/158/155
90 Day Mean        06 Sep 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep  011/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep  015/018-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           20/01/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/20/15