:Product: 0907RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Sep 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
07/1943Z from Region 2157 (S14E31). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09
Sep, 10 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
432 km/s at 06/2106Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/0035Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/2323Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9 pfu at
06/2245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 105 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (08 Sep, 10
Sep) and quiet levels on day two (09 Sep). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep, 10 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Sep 151
Predicted   08 Sep-10 Sep 148/145/150
90 Day Mean        07 Sep 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep  008/008-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/15/20