:Product: 0908RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Sep 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 08/0011Z from Region 2157 (S14E17). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 493 km/s at 08/0540Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 07/2126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/0613Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 07/2300Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Sep, 10 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (11 Sep). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep). III. Event probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep Class M 75/75/75 Class X 30/30/30 Proton 30/30/30 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Sep 164 Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 160/162/162 90 Day Mean 08 Sep 130 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 010/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 008/008-008/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 20/20/20