:Product: 0910RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Sep 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was an X1/2b event observed at
10/1745Z from Region 2158 (N15E00). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12
Sep, 13 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
396 km/s at 10/1533Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/2038Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/1917Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
09/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 212 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Sep), quiet to major storm levels
on day two (12 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (13
Sep). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    40/40/40
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Sep 160
Predicted   11 Sep-13 Sep 160/165/165
90 Day Mean        10 Sep 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep  006/005-021/032-018/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/45
Minor Storm           05/45/25
Major-severe storm    01/20/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/10
Minor Storm           20/15/25
Major-severe storm    20/79/70