:Product: 0911RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Sep 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
11/1526Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Sep, 13
Sep, 14 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
404 km/s at 11/0248Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/2252Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/0356Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 28 pfu at
11/0515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (12 Sep), active to
severe storm levels on day two (13 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (14 Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on
days one and two (12 Sep, 13 Sep) and are expected to cross threshold on
day three (14 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    50/50/50
Proton     99/99/90
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Sep 151
Predicted   12 Sep-14 Sep 152/150/150
90 Day Mean        11 Sep 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep  028/040-037/060-018/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/45
Minor Storm           45/40/30
Major-severe storm    25/45/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/01/05
Minor Storm           15/10/20
Major-severe storm    85/90/75