:Product: 0912RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Sep 13 1455 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/2126Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14
Sep, 15 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 672 km/s at 12/1534Z. Total IMF reached 31 nT at 12/1813Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 12/1945Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 126
pfu at 12/1555Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 504 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (13 Sep), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (14 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (15 Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one and
two (13 Sep, 14 Sep) and are expected to cross threshold on day three
(15 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    40/40/40
Proton     99/99/90
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Sep 152
Predicted   13 Sep-15 Sep 150/150/150
90 Day Mean        12 Sep 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep  016/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep  026/047
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep  040/050-018/025-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/30
Minor Storm           35/25/10
Major-severe storm    35/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           15/20/30
Major-severe storm    85/65/40